(with Christopher A. Pissarides, Dimitri Vayanos, and Nikolaos Vettas)
Prominent economists present detailed analyses of the conditions that made Greece vulnerable to economic crisis and offer policy recommendations for comprehensive and radical change.
More than eight years after the global financial crisis began, the economy of Greece shows little sign of recovery, and its position in the eurozone seems tenuous. Between 2008 and 2014, incomes in Greece shrank by more than 25 percent, homes lost more than a third of their value, and the unemployment rate reached 27 percent. Most articles on Greece in the media focus on the effects of austerity, repayment of its debt, and its future in the eurozone. In Beyond Austerity: Reforming the Greek Economy, leading Greek economists from institutions both within and outside Greece, take a broader and deeper view of the Greek crisis, examining the pathologies that made Greece vulnerable to the crisis and the implications for the entire eurozone.
Each chapter takes on a specific policy area, examining it in terms of Greece’s economic reality and offering possible directions for policy. The topics range from macroeconomic issues to markets and their regulation to finance to the public sector. Individual chapters address the costs and benefits of participation in the eurozone, Greece’s international competitiveness, taxation, pensions, the labor market, privatization, product markets, finance, education, healthcare, corruption, the justice system, and public administration. The contributors argue that Greek institutions require a deep overhaul rather than quick fixes to enable long-term growth and prosperity.
This paper studies the asymptotic properties of empirical nonparametric regressions that partially misspecify the relationships between nonstationary variables. In particular, we analyze nonparametric kernel regressions in which a potential nonlinear cointegrating regression is misspecified through the use of a proxy regressor in place of the true regressor. Such regressions arise naturally in linear and nonlinear regressions where the regressor suffers from measurement error or where the true regressor is a latent variable. The model considered allows for endogenous regressors as the latent variable and proxy variables that cointegrate asymptotically with the true latent variable. Such a framework includes correctly specified systems as well as misspecified models in which the actual regressor serves as a proxy variable for the true regressor. The system is therefore intermediate between nonlinear nonparametric cointegrating regression (Wang and Phillips, 2009a, 2009b) and completely misspecified nonparametric regressions in which the relationship is entirely spurious (Phillips, 2009). The asymptotic results relate to recent work on dynamic misspecification in nonparametric nonstationary systems by Kasparis and Phillips (2012) and Duffy (2014). The limit theory accommodates regressor variables with autoregressive roots that are local to unity and whose errors are driven by long memory and short memory innovations, thereby encompassing applications with a wide range of economic and financial time series.
This paper proposes a new model for capturing discontinuities in the underlying financial environment that can lead to abrupt falls, but not necessarily sustained monotonic falls, in asset prices. This notion of price dynamics is consistent with existing understanding of market crashes, which allows for a mix of market responses that are not universally negative. The model may be interpreted as a martingale composed with a randomized drift process that is designed to capture various asymmetric drivers of market sentiment. In particular, the model is capable of generating realistic patterns of price meltdowns and bond yield inflations that constitute major market reversals while not necessarily being always monotonic in form. The recursive and moving window methods developed in Phillips, Shi and Yu (2015, PSY), which were designed to detect exuberance in financial and economic data, are shown to have detective capacity for such meltdowns and expansions. This characteristic of the PSY tests has been noted in earlier empirical studies by the present authors and other researchers but no analytic reasoning has yet been given to explain why methods intended to capture the expansionary phase of a bubble may also detect abrupt and broadly sustained collapses. The model and asymptotic theory developed in the present paper together explain this property of the PSY procedures. The methods are applied to analyze S&P 500 stock prices and sovereign risk in European Union countries over 2001-2016 using government bond yields and credit default swap premia. A pseudo real-time empirical analysis of these data shows the effectiveness of the monitoring strategy in capturing key events and turning points in market risk assessment.