We develop a state-space model with a state-transition equation that takes the form of a functional vector autoregression and stacks macroeconomic aggregates and a cross-sectional density. The measurement equation captures the error in estimating log densities from repeated cross-sectional samples. The log densities and the transition kernels in the law of motion of the states are approximated by sieves, which leads to a nite-dimensional representation in terms of macroeconomic aggregates and sieve coefficients. We use this model to study the joint dynamics of technology shocks, per capita GDP, employment rates, and the earnings distribution. We nd that the estimated spillovers between aggregate and distributional dynamics are generally small, a positive technology shock tends to decrease inequality, and a shock that raises the inequality of earnings leads to a small but not signifi cant increase in GDP.
The integration of markets may improve efficiency by lowering costs or reducing local market power. India, seeking to reduce electricity shortages, set up a new power market, in which transmission constraints sharply limit trade between regions. During congested hours, measures of market competitiveness fall and firms raise bid prices. I use confidential bidding data to estimate the costs of power supply and simulate market outcomes with more transmission capacity. Counterfactual simulations show that transmission expansion increases market surplus by 22 percent, enough to justify the investment. One-third of this gain is due to sellers' response to a more integrated grid.
This paper examines regression-adjusted estimation and inference of unconditional quantile treatment effects (QTEs) under covariate-adaptive randomizations (CARs). Datasets from field experiments usually contain extra baseline covariates in addition to the strata indicators. We propose to incorporate these extra covariates via auxiliary regressions in the estimation and inference of unconditional QTEs. We establish the consistency, limit distribution, and validity of the multiplier bootstrap of the QTE estimator under CARs. The auxiliary regression may be estimated parametrically, nonparametrically, or via regularization when the data are high-dimensional. Even when the auxiliary regression is misspecified, the proposed bootstrap inferential procedure still achieves the nominal rejection probability in the limit under the null. When the auxiliary regression is correctly specified, the regression-adjusted estimator achieves the minimum asymptotic variance. We also derive the optimal pseudo true values for the potentially misspecified parametric model that minimize the asymptotic variance of the corresponding QTE estimator. Our estimation and inferential methods can be implemented without tuning parameters and they allow for common choices of auxiliary regressions such as linear, probit and logit regressions despite the fact that these regressions may be misspecified. Finite-sample performance of the new estimation and inferential methods is assessed in simulations and an empirical application studying the impact of child health and nutrition on educational outcomes is included.
This paper uses an econometric approach to examine the inflation consequences of the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021. Price equations are estimated and used to forecast future inflation. The main results are: (1) The data suggest that price equations should be specified in level form rather than in first or second difference form. (2) There is some slight evidence of nonlinear demand effects on prices. (3) There is no evidence that demand effects have gotten smaller over time. 4) The stimulus from the act combined with large wealth effects from past household saving, rising stock prices, and rising housing prices is large and is forecast to drive the unemployment rate down to below 3.5 percent by the middle of 2022. 5) Given this stimulus, the inflation rate is forecast to rise to slightly under 5 percent by the middle of 2022 and then comes down slowly. 6) There is considerable uncertainty in the point forecasts, especially two years out. The probability that inflation will be larger than 6 percent next year is estimated to be 31.6 percent. 7) If the Fed were behaving as historically estimated, it would raise the interest rate to about 3 percent by the end of 2021 and 3.5 percent by the end of 2022 according to the forecast. This would lower inflation, although slowly. By the middle of 2022 inflation would be about 1 percentage point lower. The unemployment rate would be 0.5 percentage points higher.
A proposal to combat free-riding in international climate agreements is the notion of a “climate club” or coalition of countries to encourage high levels of participation. Empirical models of climate clubs in the early stages relied on the analysis of single-period coalition formation. The results suggested that there were limits on the potential strength of clubs and that it would be difficult to have deep abatement strategies in the club framework. The current work extends the single-period approach to many periods and develops an approach analyzing “supportable policies” to analyze multi-period clubs. The major surprise of the study is the interaction between the club structure and rapid technological change. Neither alone will produce incentive-compatible policies that can attain the ambitious objectives of international climate policy. The trade sanctions without rapid technological decarbonization will be too costly to produce highly costly abatement; similarly, rapid technological decarbonization by itself will not induce deep abatement because of country free-riding. But the two together can achieve the international objectives.
We analyze the optimal information design in a click-through auction with fixed valuations per click, but stochastic click-through rates. While the auctioneer takes as given the auction rule of the click-through auction, namely the generalized second-price auction, the auctioneer can design the information flow regarding the click-through rates among the bidders. A natural requirement in this context is to ask for the information structure to be calibrated in the learning sense. With this constraint, the auction needs to rank the ads by a product of the bid and an unbiased estimator of the click-through rates, and the task of designing an optimal information structure is thus reduced to the task of designing an optimal unbiased estimator.
We show that in a symmetric setting with uncertainty about the click-through rates, the optimal information structure attains both social efficiency and surplus extraction. The optimal information structure requires private (rather than public) signals to the bidders. It also requires correlated (rather than independent) signals, even when the underlying uncertainty regarding the click-through rates is independent. Beyond symmetric settings, we show that the optimal information structure requires partial information disclosure.
Solving the world’s biggest problems—from climate catastrophe and pandemics to wildfires and corporate malfeasance—requires, more than anything else, coming up with new ways to manage the powerful interactions that surround us. For carbon emissions and other environmental damage, this means ensuring that those responsible pay their full costs rather than continuing to pass them along to others, including future generations. In The Spirit of Green, Nobel Prize–winning economist William Nordhaus describes a new way of green thinking that would help us overcome our biggest challenges without sacrificing economic prosperity, in large part by accounting for the spillover costs of economic collisions.
In a discussion that ranges from the history of the environmental movement to the Green New Deal, Nordhaus explains how the spirit of green thinking provides a compelling and hopeful new perspective on modern life. At the heart of green thinking is a recognition that the globalized world is shaped not by isolated individuals but rather by innumerable interactions inside and outside the economy. He shows how rethinking economic efficiency, sustainability, politics, profits, taxes, individual ethics, corporate social responsibility, finance, and more would improve the effectiveness and equity of our society. And he offers specific solutions—on how to price carbon, how to pursue low-carbon technologies, how to design an efficient tax system, and how to foster international cooperation through climate clubs.
The result is a groundbreaking new vision of how we can have our environment and our economy too.