We propose new methods for estimating the bid-ask spread from observed transaction prices alone. Our methods are based on the empirical characteristic function instead of the sample autocovariance function like the method of Roll (1984). As in Roll (1984), we have a closed form expression for the spread, but this is only based on a limited amount of the model-implied identification restrictions. We also provide methods that take account of more identification information. We compare our methods theoretically and numerically with the Roll method as well as with its best known competitor, the Hasbrouck (2004) method, which uses a Bayesian Gibbs methodology under a Gaussian assumption. Our estimators are competitive with Roll’s and Hasbrouck’s when the latent true fundamental return distribution is Gaussian, and perform much better when this distribution is far from Gaussian. Our methods are applied to the Emini futures contract on the S&P 500 during the Flash Crash of May 6, 2010. Extensions to models allowing for unbalanced order flow or Hidden Markov trade direction indicators or trade direction indicators having general asymmetric support or adverse selection are also presented, without requiring additional data.
This paper develops methodology for nonparametric estimation of a polarization measure due to Anderson (2004) and Anderson, Ge, and Leo (2006) based on kernel estimation techniques. We give the asymptotic distribution theory of our estimator, which in some cases is nonstandard due to a boundary value problem. We also propose a method for conducting inference based on estimation of unknown quantities in the limiting distribution and show that our method yields consistent inference in all cases we consider. We investigate the finite sample properties of our methods by simulation methods. We give an application to the study of polarization within China in recent years.
We propose a modification of kernel time series regression estimators that improves efficiency when the innovation process is autocorrelated. The procedure is based on a pre-whitening transformation of the dependent variable that has to be estimated from the data. We establish the asymptotic distribution of our estimator under weak dependence conditions. It is shown that the proposed estimation procedure is more efficient than the conventional kernel method. We also provide simulation evidence to suggest that gains can be achieved in moderate sized samples.
We provide an asymptotic distribution theory for a class of Generalized Method of Moments estimators that arise in the study of differentiated product markets when the number of observations is associated with the number of products within a given market. We allow for three sources of error: the sampling error in estimating market shares, the simulation error in approximating the shares predicted by the model, and the underlying model error. The limiting distribution of the parameter estimator is normal provided the size of the consumer sample and the number of simulation draws grow at a large enough rate relative to the number of products. We specialise our distribution theory to the Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995) random coefficient logit model and a pure characteristic model. The required rates differ for these two frequently used demand models. A small Monte Carlo study shows that the difference in asymptotic properties of the two models are reflected in the models’ small sample properties. These differences impact directly on the computational burden of the two models.
We develop a nonparametric estimator for the volatility structure of the zero coupon yield curve in the Heath, Jarrow-Morton framework. The estimator incorporates cross-sectional restrictions along the maturity dimension, and also allows for measurement errors, which arise from the estimation of the yield curve from noisy data. The estimates are implemented with daily CRSP bond data.
The nonparametric censored regression model is y = max [c, m(x) + e], where both the regression function m(x) and the distribution of the error e are unknown, but the fixed censoring point c is known. This paper provides a simple consistent estimator of the derivative of m(x) with respect to each element of x. The convergence rate of this estimator is the same as for the derivatives of an uncensored nonparametric regression. We then estimate the regression function itself by solving the associated partial differential equation system. We show that our estimator of m(x) achieves the same rate of convergence as the usual estimators in uncensored nonparametric regression. We also provide root n estimates of weighted average derivatives of m(x), which equal the coefficients in any linear or partly linear specification for m(x).
We provide second order theory for a smoothing-based model specification test. We derive the asymptotic cumulants and justify an Edgeworth distributional approximation valid to order close to n-1. This is used to define size-corrected critical values whose null rejection frequency improves on the normal critical values. Our simulations confirm the efficacy of this method in moderate sized samples
This paper derives the asymptotic distribution of a smoothing-based estimator of the Lyapunov exponent for a stochastic time series under two general scenarios. In the first case, we are able to establish root-T consistency and asymptotic normality, while in the second case, which is more relevant for chaotic processes, we are only able to establish asymptotic normality at a slower rate of convergence. We provide consistent confidence intervals for both cases. We apply our procedures to simulated data.
We develop kernel-based consistent tests of an hypothesis of additivity in nonparametric regression extending recent work on testing parametric null hypotheses against nonparametric alternatives. The additivity hypothesis is of interest because it delivers interpretability and reasonably fast convergence rates for standard estimators. The asymptotic distributions of the tests under a sequence of local alternatives are found and compared: in fact, we give a ranking of the different tests based on local asymptotic power. The practical performance is investigated via simulations and an application to the German migration data of Linton and Härdle (1996).
We introduce a new kernel smoother for nonparametric regression that uses prior information on regression shape in the form of a parametric model. In effect, we nonparametrically encompass the parametric model. We derive pointwise and uniform consistency and the asymptotic distribution of our procedure. It has superior performance to the usual kernel estimators at or near the parametric model. It is particularly well motivated for binary data using the probit or logit parametric model as a base. We include an application to the Horowitz (1993) transport choice dataset.
We review different approaches to nonparametric density and regression estimation. Kernel estimators are motivated from local averaging and solving ill-posed problems. Kernel estimators are compared to k-NN estimators, orthogonal series and splines. Pointwise and uniform confidence bands are described, and the choice of smoothing parameter is discussed. Finally, the method is applied to nonparametric prediction of time series and to semiparametric estimation.