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Christopher A. Neilson Publications

Journal of Development Economics
Abstract

This paper examines the effects of phone calls designed to encourage viewership of the short telenovela Decidiendo para un Futuro Mejor (Deciding for a Better Future, hereafter DFM) on national television during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in Peru. DFM uses video content to highlight the benefits of education while providing concrete information on wages and financial aid opportunities for higher education. We evaluate the impact of these calls on dropout rates in 2021 through a randomized controlled trial involving over 80,000 families with high school students. Our findings indicate that the phone calls led to a significant reduction in school dropout rates, with intention-to-treat (ITT) effects of approximately −0.6 percentage points—a meaningful impact given the 10.2% average dropout rate in the control group. The effects are stronger for students from schools with higher baseline dropout and poverty rates, with no significant differences based on parental education levels. Our results also suggest that the observed effects are primarily driven by encouragement to watch DFM rather than by the direct impact of the phone calls themselves. These findings underscore the potential of cost-effective interventions to mitigate the adverse effects of major economic shocks on educational trajectories.

Discussion Paper
Abstract

The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) extended 669 billion dollars of forgivable loans in an unprecedented effort to support small businesses affected by the COVID-19 crisis. This paper provides evidence that information frictions and the “first-come, first-served” design of the PPP program skewed its resources towards larger firms and may have permanently reduced its effectiveness. Using new daily survey data on small businesses in the U.S., we show that the smallest businesses were less aware of the PPP and less likely to apply. If they did apply, the smallest businesses applied later, faced longer processing times, and were less likely to have their application approved. These frictions may have mattered, as businesses that received aid report fewer layoffs, higher employment, and improved expectations about the future.

Discussion Paper
Abstract

This note provides new evidence on how small business owners have been impacted by COVID-19, and how these effects have evolved since the passage of the CARES Act. As part of a broader and ongoing project, we collected survey data from more than 8,000 small business owners in the U.S. from March 28th, one day after the CARES Act was passed, through April 20th. The data include information on firm size, layoffs, beliefs about the future prospects of their businesses, as well as awareness of existing government relief programs. We provide three main findings. First, by the time the CARES Act was passed, surveyed small business owners were already severely impacted by COVID-19-related disruptions: 60% had already laid off at least one worker. Second, business owners’ expectations about the future are negative and have deteriorated throughout our study period, with 37% of respondents in the first week reporting that they did not expect to recover within 2 years, growing to 46% by the last week. Third, the smallest businesses had the least awareness of government assistance programs, the slowest growth in awareness after the passage of the CARES Act, and never caught up with larger businesses. The last finding indicates that small businesses may have missed out on initial Paycheck Protection Program funds because of low baseline awareness and differential access to information relative to larger firms.