Publication Date: March 2014
Update Date: October 2014
We propose a new adequacy test and a graphical evaluation tool for nonlinear dynamic models. The proposed techniques can be applied in any setup where parametric conditional distribution of the data is speciﬁed, in particular to models involving conditional volatility, conditional higher moments, conditional quantiles, asymmetry, Value at Risk models, duration models, diﬀusion models, etc. Compared to other tests, the new test properly controls the nonlinear dynamic behavior in conditional distribution and does not rely on smoothing techniques which require a choice of several tuning parameters. The test is based on a new kind of multivariate empirical process of contemporaneous and lagged probability integral transforms. We establish weak convergence of the process under parameter uncertainty and local alternatives. We justify a parametric bootstrap approximation that accounts for parameter estimation eﬀects often ignored in practice. Monte Carlo experiments show that the test has good ﬁnite-sample size and power properties. Using the new test and graphical tools we check the adequacy of various popular heteroscedastic models for stock exchange index data.
Conditional distribution, Time series, Goodness-of-ﬁt, Empirical process, Weak convergence, Parameter uncertainty, Probability integral transform
JEL Classification Codes: C12, C22, C52