Discussion Papers

CFDP 2155 Yusuke Narita, Shota Yasui, Kohei Yata, "Efficient Counterfactual Learning from Bandit Feedback," (December 2018) [15pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2154 John Geanakoplos, Haobin Wang, "Quantitative Easing, Collateral Constraints, and Financial Spillovers," (December 2018) [43pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2153 Peter C. B. Phillips, Yonghui Zhang, Xiaohu Wang, "HAR Testing for Spurious Regression in Trend," (December 2018) [36pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2152 Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, "Real Time Monitoring of Asset Markets: Bubbles and Crises," (November 2018) [24pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2151 Offer Lieberman, Peter C. B. Phillips, "Understanding Temporal Aggregation Effects on Kurtosis in Financial Indices," (June 2018) [39pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2150 Peter C. B. Phillips, "Dynamic Panel Modeling of Climate Change," (December 2018) [33pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2149 Joyee Deb, Aniko Öry (Oery), Kevin R. Williams, "Aiming for the Goal: Contribution Dynamics of Crowdfunding," (December 2018) [62pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2148 Tilman Börgers, Jiangtao Li, "Strategically Simple Mechanisms," (December 2018) [58pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2147 Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, Stephen Morris, "Countering the Winner’s Curse: Optimal Auction Design in a Common Value Model," (November 2018) [37pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2146 Timothy B. Armstrong, "Adaptation Bounds for Confidence Bands under Self-Similarity," (October 2018) [31pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2145 Orazio P. Attanasio, Helen Baker-Henningham, Raquel Bernal, Costas Meghir, Diana Pineda, Marta Rubio-Codina, "Early Stimulation and Nutrition: The Impacts of a Scalable Intervention," (August 2018) [47pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2144 Soheil Ghili, Matthew Schmitt, "Risk Aversion and Double Marginalization," (August 2018) [46pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2143 Andrés González Lira, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, "Enforcing Regulation under Illicit Adaptation," (August 2018) [63pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2142 Dirk Bergemann, Alessandro Bonatti, "Markets for Information: An Introduction," (August 2018) [31pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2141 Philip A. Haile, Yuichi Kitamura, "Unobserved Heterogeneity in Auctions," (August 2018) [29pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2140 Ray C. Fair, "Information Content of DSGE Forecasts," (August 2018) [17pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2139 Lori Beaman, Ariel BenYishay, Jeremy Magruder, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, "Can Network Theory-based Targeting Increase Technology Adoption?," (August 2018) [61pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2138 Martin Shubik, "Apologia Pro Vita Sua: The Vanishing of the White Whale in the Mists," (July 2018) [7pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2137 Giovanni Compiani, Philip A. Haile, Marcelo Sant'Anna, "Common Values, Unobserved Heterogeneity, and Endogenous Entry in U.S. Offshore Oil Lease Auctions," (June 2018) [80pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2136R James D. Dana Jr., Kevin R. Williams, "Oligopoly Price Discrimination: The Role of Inventory Controls," (June 2018, Revised September 2018) [37pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2136 James D. Dana Jr., Kevin R. Williams, "Oligopoly Price Discrimination: The Role of Inventory Controls," (June 2018) [30pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2135 Amanda E. Kowalski, "Extrapolation using Selection and Moral Hazard Heterogeneity from within the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment," (June 2018) [39pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2134 Shinichi Hirota, Juergen Huber, Thomas Stöckl, Shyam Sunder, "Speculation and Price Indeterminacy in Financial Markets: An Experimental Study," (June 2018) [73pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2133 Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, Stephen Morris, "Revenue Guarantee Equivalence," (May 2018) [20pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2132 Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, Stephen Morris, "First-Price Auctions with General Information Structures: A Short Introduction," (May 2018) [11pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2131 Farzad Sabzikar, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, "Asymptotic Theory for Near Integrated Process Driven by Tempered Linear Process," (May 2018) [28pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2130 William D. Nordhaus, "Global Melting? The Economics of Disintegration of the Greenland Ice Sheet," (April 2018) [41pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2129 Florian Ederer, Frédéric Schneider, "The Persistent Power of Promises," (April 2018) [25pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2128 Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii, "Dispersed Behavior and Perceptions in Assortative Societies," (April 2018) [67pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2127 Yusuke Narita, "Toward an Ethical Experiment," (April 2018) [102pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2126 José-Antonio Espín-Sánchez, Álvaro Parra, "Entry Games under Private Information," (April 2018) [44pp, Abstract] [Supplemental material,4 pp]
CFDP 2125 John E. Roemer, "A theory of cooperation in games with an application to market socialism," (March 2018) [36pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2124 Ray C. Fair, "Explaining the Slow U.S.Recovery: 2010–2017," (March 2018) [24pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2123 Pradeep Dubey, "Intuitive Solutions in Game Representations: The Shapley Value Revisited," (March 2018) [9pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2122 Minkyung Kim, K. Sudhir, Kosuke Uetake, Rodrigo Canales, "When Salespeople Manage Customer Relationships: Multidimensional Incentives and Private Information," (March 2018) [72pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2121 Hamish Low, Costas Meghir, Luigi Pistaferri, Alessandra Voena, "Marriage, Labor Supply and the Dynamics of the Social Safety Net," (February 2018) [71pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2120 Victor Chernozhukov, Iván Fernández-Val, Sukjin Han, Amanda E. Kowalski, "Censored Quantile Instrumental Variable Estimation with Stata," (February 2018) [10pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2119 Yuhta Ishii, Aniko Öry (Oery), Adrien Vigier, "Competing for Talent," (February 2018) [51pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2118R Martin Shubik, "The Paradox of Competition: Power, Markets, and Money - Who Gets What, When, How?," (January 2018, Revised March 2018) [162pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2118 Martin Shubik, "Who Gets What, When, How? Power, Organization, Markets, Money and the Allocation of Resources," (January 2018) [142pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2117R Eva Lyubich, Joseph S. Shapiro, Reed Walker, "Regulating Mismeasured Pollution: Implications of Firm Heterogeneity for Environmental Policy," (January 2018, Revised March 2018) [18pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2117 Eva Lyubich, Joseph S. Shapiro, Reed Walker, "Regulating Mismeasured Pollution: Implications of Firm Heterogeneity for Environmental Policy," (January 2018) [18pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2116 Robert J. Shiller, Rafal M. Wojakowski, M. Shahid Ebrahim, Mark B. Shackleton, "Continuous Workout Mortgages: Efficient Pricing and Systemic Implications," (December 2017) [64pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2115 Timothy B. Armstrong, Michal Kolesár, "Finite-Sample Optimal Estimation and Inference on Average Treatment Effects Under Unconfoundedness," (December 2017) [44pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2114 Yubo Tao, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu, "Random Coefficient Continuous Systems: Testing for Extreme Sample Path Behaviour," (December 2017) [55pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2113 Offer Lieberman, Peter C. B. Phillips, "Hybrid Stochastic Local Unit Roots," (December 2017) [39pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2112 Michèle Müller-Itten, Aniko Öry (Oery), "Mentoring and the Dynamics of Affirmative Action," (November 2017) [42pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2111 Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Ioannis Kasparis, "Latent Variable Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression," (September 2017) [28pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2110 Peter C. B. Phillips, "Detecting Financial Collapse and Ballooning Sovereign Risk," (September 2017) [30pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2109 Degui Li, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jiti Gao, "Kernel-Based Inference In Time-Varying Coefficient Cointegrating Regression," (September 2017) [46pp, Abstract] [Supplemental material,12 pp]