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Jannik M. Westermann Publications

Discussion Paper
Abstract

Let X1,…,Xn be independent nonnegative random variables with 𝔼[Xi]≤1. We prove that, for every t≥2n+1,

ℙ[∑i=1nXi≥t]≤1−(1−1t)n.

To prove this, we consider a relaxed optimization problem over a set of sequences of ordered, but non-independent random variables. This allows us to reformulate it recursively as a dynamic programming problem. The bound becomes an equality for the binary i.i.d. random variables satisfying ℙ[Xi=0]=1−1/t and ℙ[Xi=t]=1/t, which remains a maximizer in the relaxed problem.