This study presents the design and results of a rapid-fire survey that collects labor market data for individuals in the United States. The purpose is to test online panels for their application to social, economic, and demographic information as well as to apply this approach to the U.S. labor market. The Yale Labor Survey (YLS) used an online panel from YouGov to replicate statistics from the Current Population Survey (CPS), the government’s official source of household labor market statistics. The YLS’s advantages included its timeliness, low cost, and ability to develop new questions quickly to study unusual labor market patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results from the YLS track employment data closely from the CPS during the pandemic. Although YLS estimates of unemployment and participation rates mirrored the broad trends in CPS data, YLS estimates of those two rates were less accurate than for employment. The study demonstrates the power of carefully crafted online surveys to replicate expensive traditional methods quickly and inexpensively.
This study presents the design and results of a rapid-fire survey that collects labor market data for households in the United States. The Yale Labor Survey, or YLS, uses an online panel from YouGov to replicate the Current Population Survey (CPS), which is the source of the government’s monthly household statistics. Questions in the YLS concern current and retrospective employment, hours, and income. Because the YLS draws upon an existing pool of potential respondents, it can generate responses inexpensively and quickly (within 24 hours). Moreover, the YLS can develop new questions in real time to study unusual patterns of work and unemployment during the pandemic. Results from the YLS track those from the CPS over the period of April through June of 2020, with relatively accurate estimates of employment but greater difficulty capturing unemployment. The major issue statistical issue dealt with in this paper is the sample weighting required to overcome the bias in using an online panel.
The Yale Labor Survey (YLS) uses online panels to estimate the state of the US labor market in real time. It is designed to parallel the US government’s monthly labor force survey and present weekly information rapidly and inexpensively. Using an experimental design, the YLS estimates that the US unemployment rate peaked in late April and improved substantially by mid-June. The YLS unemployment rate in mid-June is estimated to be 15%, down about 2 percentage points from mid-May.