Local Limit Theory and Spurious Nonparametric Regression … Local Limit Theory and Spurious Nonparametric Regression Discussion Paper A local limit theorem is proved for sample covariances of nonstationary time series and integrable functions of such time …

Understanding Overbidding in Second Price Auctions: An Experimental Study … Understanding Overbidding in Second Price Auctions: An Experimental Study Discussion Paper This paper presents results from a series of second price private value auction (SPA) …

Overconfidence and Prejudice … Overconfidence and Prejudice Discussion Paper 150720 19552 152387 We explore conclusions a person draws from observing society when he allows for the possibility that individuals' outcomes are affected by group-level …

Production Theory and the Stock Market … Production Theory and the Stock Market Discussion Paper Traditional economic models separate firms’ production decisions from equilibrium in stock markets. In this paper, we develop an integrated model of production …

Misinterpreting Others and the Fragility of Social Learning … Misinterpreting Others and the Fragility of Social Learning Discussion Paper 301393 301394 152351 We exhibit a natural environment, social learning among heterogeneous agents, where even slight …

The Anatomy of French Production Hierarchies … The Anatomy of French Production Hierarchies Discussion Paper 19519 149788 149789 We use a comprehensive dataset of French manufacturing firms to study their internal organization. We first divide the employees …

Testing for Multiple Bubbles … Testing for Multiple Bubbles Discussion Paper 149319 150069 Identifying and dating explosive bbles when there is periodically collapsing behavior over time has been a major concern in the economics literature and is of great …

Detecting Financial Collapse and Ballooning Sovereign Risk … Detecting Financial Collapse and Ballooning Sovereign Risk Discussion Paper This paper proposes a new model for capturing discontinuities in the underlying financial environment that can lead to …

Understanding Sectoral Labor Market Dynamics: An Equilibrium Analysis of the Oil and Gas Field Services Industry … Understanding Sectoral Labor Market Dynamics: An Equilibrium Analysis of the Oil and Gas Field Services Industry Discussion Paper 149910 …

Dynamic Random Utility … Dynamic Random Utility Discussion Paper 301393 301394 149596 We provide an axiomatic analysis of dynamic random utility, characterizing the stochastic choice behavior of agents who solve dynamic decision problems by maximizing …

What is Socialism Today? Conceptions of a Cooperative Economy … What is Socialism Today? Conceptions of a Cooperative Economy Discussion Paper Socialism is back on the political agenda in the United States. Politicians and some economists who identify as …

The Welfare Effects of Long-Term Health Insurance Contracts … The Welfare Effects of Long-Term Health Insurance Contracts Discussion Paper 20587 149426 149427 149428 Reclassification risk is a major concern in health insurance where contracts are typically …

Asymptotic Size of Kleibergen's LM and Conditional LR Tests for Moment Condition Models … Asymptotic Size of Kleibergen's LM and Conditional LR Tests for Moment Condition Models Discussion Paper An influential paper by Kleibergen (2005) introduces …

Wages, the Terms of Trade, and the Exchange Rate Regime … Wages, the Terms of Trade, and the Exchange Rate Regime Discussion Paper This paper analyzes a two-commodity short-run macroeconomic model under fixed and flexible exchange rates. Goods are …

Consistent Estimation with a Large Number of Weak Instruments … Consistent Estimation with a Large Number of Weak Instruments Discussion Paper 149661 150019 This paper conducts a general analysis of the conditions under which consistent estimation can be …