Smooth Unbiased Multivariate Probability Simulators for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Limited Dependent Variable Models … Smooth Unbiased Multivariate Probability Simulators for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Limited Dependent Variable Models …

The Stabilization of the U.S. Economy: Evidence from the Stock Market … The Stabilization of the U.S. Economy: Evidence from the Stock Market Discussion Paper Until recently, economists widely believed that economic activity had become less variable in …

Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations … Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations Discussion Paper What shocks account for the business cycle frequency and long run movements of output and prices? This paper addresses this question using the identifying …

Dynamic Strategic Information Transmission … Dynamic Strategic Information Transmission Discussion Paper 149192 149828 19502 149829 This paper studies strategic information transmission in a dynamic environment where, each period, a privately informed …

Optimal Long-Term Health Insurance Contracts: Characterization, Computation, and Welfare Effects … Optimal Long-Term Health Insurance Contracts: Characterization, Computation, and Welfare Effects Discussion Paper 20587 149426 149427 149428 Reclassification …

Dynamic Airline Pricing and Seat Availability … Dynamic Airline Pricing and Seat Availability Discussion Paper 19867 Airfares fluctuate over time due to both demand shocks and intertemporal variation in willingness to pay. I develop and estimate a model …

Dynamic Random Utility … Dynamic Random Utility Discussion Paper 301394 301393 Under dynamic random utility, an agent (or population of agents) solves a dynamic decision problem subject to evolving private information. We analyze the fully general and …

Aggregation of Diverse Information with Double Auction Trading among Minimally-Intelligent Algorithmic Agents … Aggregation of Diverse Information with Double Auction Trading among Minimally-Intelligent Algorithmic Agents Discussion Paper 149568 149569 …

The Natural Rate as New Classical Macroeconomics … The Natural Rate as New Classical Macroeconomics Discussion Paper 22203 Friedman identified his “natural rate” as Walrasian equilibrium. Keynes’s “full employment” is also classical equilibrium: labor …

Mandate-Based Health Reform and the Labor Market: Evidence from the Massachusetts Reform … Mandate-Based Health Reform and the Labor Market: Evidence from the Massachusetts Reform Discussion Paper 149794 149616 We model the labor market impact of the …

Continuous Workout Mortgages … Continuous Workout Mortgages Discussion Paper 149535 149618 149619 149620 This paper models Continuous Workout Mortgages (CWMs) in an economic environment with refinancings and prepayments by employing a market-observable …

Optimal Bandwidth Selection in Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Testing … Optimal Bandwidth Selection in Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Testing Discussion Paper In time series regressions with nonparametrically autocorrelated errors, …

Threshold Regression with Endogeneity … Threshold Regression with Endogeneity Discussion Paper 149548 This paper studies estimation and specification testing in threshold regression with endogeneity. Three key results differ from those in regular models. …

The Demand for Information: More Heat than Light … The Demand for Information: More Heat than Light Discussion Paper 19490 This paper produces a comprehensive theory of the value of Bayesian information and its static demand. Our key insight is to assume …

Xenophobia and Distribution in France: A Politico-economic Analysis … Xenophobia and Distribution in France: A Politico-economic Analysis Discussion Paper Anti-immigrant feeling (xenophobia) among voters has been proposed as a key factor explaining why, …