Discussion Papers

CFDP 2260 Ray C. Fair, "Analysis of Nine U.S. Recessions and Three Expansions," (October 2020) [42pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2259 Todd Henry, Peter C. B. Phillips, "Forecasting Economic Activity Using the Yield Curve: Quasi-Real-Time Applications for New Zealand, Australia and the US," (October 2020) [20pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2258 Kai Hao Yang, "Selling Consumer Data for Profit: Optimal Market-Segmentation Design and its Consequences," (October 2020) [90pp, Abstract][Supplemental material ,39 pp]
CFDP 2257 Xiaohong Chen, Matthew Gentry, Tong Li, Jingfeng Lu, "Identification and Inference in First-Price Auctions with Risk Averse Bidders and Selective Entry," (September 2020) [61pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2256 Jungyoon Lee, Peter C. B. Phillips, Francesca Rossi, "Consistent Misspecification Testing in Spatial Autoregressive Models," (August 2020) [58pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2255 Anna Sanktjohanser, "Optimally Stubborn," (August 2020) [45pp, Abstract][Supplemental material ,26 pp]
CFDP 2254 Ishita Chakraborty, Joyee Deb, Aniko Öry (Oery), "When Do Consumers Talk?," (August 2020) [28pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2253 Federico Huneeus, Richard Rogerson, "Heterogeneous Paths of Industrialization," (August 2020) [45pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2252 Ke Miao, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su, "High-Dimensional VARs with Common Factors," (August 2020) [70pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2251 Ye Chen, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, "Common Bubble Detection in Large Dimensional Financial Systems," (August 2020) [63pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2250 Peter C. B. Phillips, Ying Wang, "When Bias Contributes to Variance: True Limit Theory in Functional Coefficient Cointegrating Regression," (August 2020) [56pp, Abstract][Supplemental material ,13 pp]
CFDP 2249 Liang Jiang, Xiaobin Liu, Peter C. B. Phillips, Yichong Zhang, "Bootstrap Inference for Quantile Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments with Matched Pairs," (August 2020) [40pp, Abstract][Supplemental material ,46 pp]
CFDP 2248 Shuping Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips, "Diagnosing Housing Fever with an Econometric Thermometer," (August 2020) [31pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2247 John Eric Humphries, Christopher Neilson, Gabriel Ulyssea, "Information Frictions and Access to the Paycheck Protection Program," (August 2020) [67pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2246 Charles Hodgson, Gregory Lewis, "You Can Lead a Horse to Water: Spatial Learning and Path Dependence in Consumer Search," (August 2020) [65pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2245 Yotam Harchol, Dirk Bergemann, Nick Feamster, Eric Friedman, Arvind Krishnamurthy, Aurojit Panda, Sylvia Ratnasamy, Michael Schapira, Scott Shenker, "A Public Option for the Core," (August 2020) [14pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2244 Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yves Le Yaouanq, "Objective rationality foundations for (dynamic) α-MEU," (July 2020) [26pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2243 Christopher Foote, William D. Nordhaus, Douglas Rivers, "The US Employment Situation Using the Yale Labor Survey," (July 2020) [53pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2242 Xiaohong Chen, Zhijie Xiao, Bo Wang, "Copula-Based Time Series With Filtered Nonstationarity," (July 2020) [72pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2241 Victor Couture, Jonathan I. Dingel, Allison Green, Jessie Handbury, Kevin R. Williams, "Measuring Movement and Social Contact with Smartphone Data: A Real-time Application to COVID-19," (July 2020) [34pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2240 Christopher Foote, William D. Nordhaus, Douglas Rivers, "Work in the Time of COVID: Results from the Yale Labor Survey," (June 2020) [12pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2239 Nicholas Ryan, Anant Sudarshan, "Rationing the Commons," (June 2020) [83pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2238 Christoph Breunig, Xiaohong Chen, "Adaptive, Rate-Optimal Testing in Instrumental Variables Models," (June 2020) [70pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2237 Michael D. König, Kjetil Storesletten, Zheng Song, Fabrizio Zilibotti, "From Imitation to Innovation: Where Is All That Chinese R&D Going?," (June 2020) [47pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2236 Xiaohong Chen, Lars P. Hansen, Peter G. Hansen, "Robust Identification of Investor Beliefs," (May 2020) [63pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2235 Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii, "Stability and Robustness in Misspecified Learning Models," (May 2020) [59pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2234 Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, Stephen Morris, "Competition and Public Information: A Note," (May 2020) [6pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2233R Tatiana Didier, Federico Huneeus, Mauricio Larrain, Sergio L. Schmukler, "Financing Firms in Hibernation during the COVID-19 Pandemic," (May 2020, Revised September 2020) [31pp, Abstract], (See: CFDP 2233)
CFDP 2233 Tatiana Didier, Federico Huneeus, Mauricio Larrain, Sergio L. Schmukler, "Financing Firms in Hibernation during the COVID-19 Pandemic," (May 2020) [23pp, Abstract], (See: CFDP 2233R)
CFDP 2232 Rowena Crawford, Cormac O'Dea, "Household Portfolios and Financial Preparedness for Retirement," (January 2020) [66pp, Abstract] , (See: CFP1679)
CFDP 2231 Antoine Bommier, Daniel Harenberg, François Le Grand, Cormac O'Dea, "Recursive Preferences, the Value of Life, and Household Finance," (May 2020) [55pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2230 John Eric Humphries, Christopher Neilson, Gabriel Ulyssea, "The evolving impacts of COVID-19 on small businesses since the CARES Act," (April 2020) [27pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2229R Thomas Kruse, Philipp Strack, "Optimal Control of an Epidemic through Social Distancing," (April 2020, Revised July 2020) [29pp, Abstract], (See: CFDP 2229)
CFDP 2229 Thomas Kruse, Philipp Strack, "Optimal Control of an Epidemic through Social Distancing," (April 2020) [19pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2228 Francesco Agostinelli, Matthias Doepke, Giuseppe Sorrenti, Fabrizio Zilibotti, "It Takes a Village: The Economics of Parenting with Neighborhood and Peer Effects," (April 2020) [70pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2227 Timo Ehrig, Jaison Manjaly, Aditya Singh, Shyam Sunder, "Adaptive Rationality in Strategic Interaction: Do Emotions Regulate Thinking about Others?," (April 2020) [37pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2226 Pierre-André Chiappori, Monica Costa-Dias, Costas Meghir, "Changes in Assortative Matching: Theory and Evidence for the US," (March 2020) [67pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2225 Pierre-André Chiappori, Monica Costa-Dias, Sam Crossman, Costas Meghir, "Changes in Assortative Matching and Inequality in Income: Evidence for the UK," (March 2020) [31pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2224R Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, Stephen Morris, "Search, Information, and Prices," (March 2020, Revised May 2020) [60pp, Abstract], (See: CFDP 2224)
CFDP 2224 Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, Stephen Morris, "Search, Information, and Prices," (March 2020) [59pp, Abstract], (See: CFDP 2224R)
CFDP 2223 Robert J. Shiller, "Popular Economic Narratives Advancing the Longest U.S. Economic Expansion 2009-2019," (March 2020) [16pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2221 Myrto Kalouptsidi, Yuichi Kitamura, Lucas Lima, Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, "Partial Identification and Inference for Dynamic Models and Counterfactuals," (February 2020) [63pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2220 John E. Roemer, "What is Socialism Today? Conceptions of a Cooperative Economy," (January 2020) [60pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2219R Soheil Ghili, Vineet Kumar, "Spatial Distribution of Supply and the Role of Market Thickness: Theory and Evidence from Ride Sharing," (January 2020, Revised August 2020) [92pp, Abstract], (See: CFDP 2219)
CFDP 2219 Soheil Ghili, Vineet Kumar, "Spatial Distribution of Supply and the Role of Market Thickness: Theory and Evidence from Ride Sharing," (January 2020) [70pp, Abstract], (See: CFDP 2219R)
CFDP 2218R Soheil Ghili, Ben Handel, Igal Hendel, Michael D. Whinston, "Optimal Long-Term Health Insurance Contracts: Characterization, Computation, and Welfare Effects," (January 2020, Revised July 2020) [66pp, Abstract], (See: CFDP 2218)
CFDP 2218 Soheil Ghili, Ben Handel, Igal Hendel, Michael D. Whinston, "The Welfare Effects of Long-Term Health Insurance Contracts," (January 2020) [64pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2217 Panayotis Mertikopoulos, Heinrich H. Nax, Bary S. R. Pradelski, "Quick or Cheap? Breaking Points in Dynamic Markets," (January 2020) [45pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2216 Jawwad Noor, "Intuitive Beliefs," (December 2019) [56pp, Abstract]
CFDP 2215 Xiaohong Chen, Zhuo Huang, Yanping Yi, "Efficient Estimation of Multivariate Semi-nonparametric GARCH Filtered Copula Models," (August 2015, Revised October 2019) [78pp, Abstract]