CFDP 1864

How Should the Fed Report Uncertainty?

Author(s): 

Publication Date: June 2012

Pages: 23

Abstract: 

In January 2012 the Fed began reporting ranges of its economic forecasts. The ranges, however, measure differences of opinion, not variances of economic forecasts. This paper discusses what the Fed could report in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for the Fed to report given that it is unlikely to be willing to commit to a single model.

Keywords: 

Forecasting uncertainty, Fed policy

JEL Classification Codes:  E58