Publication Date: August 2010
Revision Date: February 2013
We propose a model of history-dependent risk attitude, allowing a decision maker’s risk attitude to be aﬀected by his history of disappointments and elations. The decision maker recursively evaluates compound risks, classifying realizations as disappointing or elating using a threshold rule. We establish equivalence between the model and two cognitive biases: risk attitudes are reinforced by experiences (one is more risk averse after disappointment than after elation) and there is a primacy eﬀect (early outcomes have the greatest impact on risk attitude). In dynamic asset pricing, the model yields volatile, path-dependent prices.
History-dependent risk attitude, Statistically reversing risk attitudes, Reinforcement eﬀect, Primacy eﬀect, Endogenous reference dependence, Betweenness, Optimism, Pessimism
JEL Classification Codes: D03, D81, D91
See CFP: 1472