CFDP 1756

Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill


Publication Date: March 2010

Revision Date: May 2010

Pages: 27


This paper uses a multicountry macroeconometric model to estimate the macroeconomic effects of the U.S. stimulus bill passed in February 2009. The analysis has the advantage of taking into account many endogenous effects. Real U.S. output is estimated to be $554 billion larger when summed over the 12-year period 2009:1–2020:4 (0.29 percent of the total sum of output). The average number of jobs is 509 thousand larger (0.37 percent). There is some redistribution of output and employment away from 2012–2015. At the end of 2020 the federal government debt is larger by $637 billion in real terms (the debt/GDP ratio is larger by 3.19 percentage points), which may increase the risk of negative asset-market reactions.


Stimulus effects, Government spending multipliers

JEL Classification Codes: E17


Published in Contemporary Economic Policy (October 2010), 439-452