Discussion Paper
To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends
In two recent articles, Sims (1988) and Sims and Uhlig (1988) question the value of much of the ongoing literature on unit roots and stochastic trends. They characterize the seeds of this literature as “sterile ideas,” the application of nonstationary limit theory as “wrongheaded and unenlightening” and the use of classical methods of inference as “unreasonable” and “logically unsound.” They advocate in place of classical methods an explicit Bayesian approach to inference that utilizes a flat prior on the autoregressive coefficient.