CFDP 831

The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update


Publication Date: April 1987

Pages: 14


In previous work I have developed an equation explaining votes for president in the United States that seems to have a remarkable predictive ability. The purpose of this paper is to update this equation through the 1984 election and then use it to predict the 1988 election.


Presidential election, Votes, Inflation, Gross national product growth, Unemployment, Politics, Political business cycle, President

JEL Classification Codes: 025, 212, 921, 131

See CFP: 735