CFDP 2038R3
The Incidence of Carbon Taxes in U.S. Manufacturing: Lessons from Energy Cost Pass-through
Author(s):Publication Date: May 2016
Revision Date: March 2018
Pages: 49
Abstract:
This paper studies how changes in energy input costs for U.S. manufacturers affect the relative welfare of manufacturing producers and consumers (i.e., incidence). In doing so, we develop a novel partial equilibrium methodology designed to estimate the incidence of input taxes. This method simultaneously accounts for three determinants of incidence that are typically studied in isolation: incomplete pass-through of input costs, differences in industry competitiveness, and substitution amongst inputs used for production. We apply this methodology to a set of U.S. manufacturing industries for which we observe plant-level unit prices and input choices. We find that about 70 percent of energy price-driven changes in input costs are passed through to consumers. We combine industry-specific pass-through rates with estimates of industry competitiveness to show that the share of welfare cost borne by consumers is 25-75 percent smaller (and the share borne by producers is correspondingly larger) than models featuring complete pass-through and perfect competition would suggest.
Keywords:
Pass-through, Incidence, Energy prices, Productivity, Climate change
JEL Classification Codes: H22, H23, Q40, Q54