CFDP 1927R

Inference on Optimal Treatment Assignments

Author(s): 

Publication Date: November 2013

Revision Date: April 2014

Pages: 31

Abstract: 

We consider inference on optimal treatment assignments. Our methods allow for inference on the treatment assignment rule that would be optimal given knowledge of the population treatment effect in a general setting. The procedure uses multiple hypothesis testing methods to determine a subset of the population for which assignment to treatment can be determined to be optimal after conditioning on all available information, with a prespecified level of confidence. A monte carlo study confirms that the inference procedure has good small sample behavior. We apply the method to study the Mexican conditional cash transfer program Progresa.

Keywords: 

Treatment assignment, Multiple testing

JEL Classification Codes:  C10, C18