CFDP 1403

Bonds or Loans? The Effect of Macroeconomic Fundamentals

Author(s): 

Publication Date: February 2003

Revision Date: September 2005

Pages: 53pp, abstract

Abstract: 

The costs of debt crises are not invariant to the foreign debt instrument composition: bank loans or bonds. The lending boom of the 1990s witnessed considerable variation over time and across countries in the debt instrument used by emerging market (EM) borrowers. This paper tests how macroeconomic fundamentals affect the composition of international debt instruments used by EM borrowers. Analysis of micro-level data using ordered probability model shows that macroeconomic fundamentals explain a significant share of variation in the ratio of bonds to loans for private borrowers, but not for the sovereigns.

Keywords: 

Emerging markets, Foreign debt, Debt composition, Country risk

JEL Classification Codes:  F34