Workshop on Simplicity and Likelihood

November 13-15, 2009

12:30 Lunch and Registration
2:00 Nabil Al-Najjar (Northwestern University), “Coarse Decision Making”
2:45 Luciano De Castro (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign), “A Subjective Foundation of Objective Probability”
3:30 Break
4:00 Malcolm Forster (University of Wisconsin), “Counterexamples to a Likelihood Theory of Evidence”
4:45 Peter Grunwald (CWI), “The Catch-Up Phenomenon in Model Selection and Prediction”
7:00 Dinner (By invitation)
8:30 Breakfast
9:30 Joe Halpern (Cornell University), “Cause, Responsibility, and Blame: A Structural-Model Approach”
10:15 Break
10:45 Yishay Mansour (Tel Aviv University), “Simplicity in Machine Learning”
11:30 Peter McCullagh (University of Chicago), “Selection Effects and Sampling Bias”
12:15 Lunch
2:00 James Robins (Harvard University), “Finding Causal Effects without Background Knowledge or Statistical Independencies”
2:45 Larry Wasserman (Carnegie Mellon University), “Sparse Estimators for Nonsparse Distributions”
3:30 Break
4:00 David Schmeidler (Ohio State University & Tel Aviv University), “Likelihood and Simplicity: An Axiomatic Approach”
4:45 David Wolpert (NASA), “Physical Limits of Inference”
8:30 Breakfast
9:30 Aris Spanos (Virginia Tech), “Akaike-type Criteria and the Reliability of Inference”
10:15 Break
10:45 David Pollard (Yale University), “Fat-Shattering Dimension and the Role of Majorizing Measures”
11:30 Larry Samuelson (Yale University), “Preferring Simplicity”
12:15 Lunch